USSC Proposes Refinements on ‘Career Offender’ – Update for January 30, 2026

We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

SENTENCING COMMISSION FLOATS PROBATION, CAREER OFFENDER PROPOSALS

In a rare second round of proposals for amending the federal Sentencing Guidelines, the US Sentencing Commission today published three sets of options to perhaps add to the proposed amendments that will be sent to Congress on or before May 1^st.

These proposals are in addition to several issued last month, and – if adopted – represent a substantial change toward judicial flexibility as well as a commonsense approach to what some think has become a tendency to label far too many defendants as “career offenders,” a designation that has a major inflationary effect on sentencing ranges.

Today’s proposals focus on substantially expanding the sentencing ranges that should be eligible for probation, home confinement, and “spilt sentences” (half in  prison, half on home confinement).  Currently, a defendant who has a sentencing range that starts at more than 12 months is presumptively doing it all in prison. More than six months takes probation off the table. The Commission proposes to dramatically increase the sentencing ranges for which judges may consider probation and split sentences, with the probation zone expanding to up to the 87-108 month stratum for people with no prior criminal history (and more modest expansions for those having criminal history).

More significant are proposed changes in the Guidelines that govern whether someone is considered a “career offender.” The Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 directs the Commission to ensure that “career offenders” receive sentences near the statutory maximum. The Commission’s definition of what constitutes a career offender, however, has caught many defendants in the net whose criminal histories do not suggest “career criminal” by any stretch of the imagination.

Under the current Guidelines, two minor state burglaries 14 years ago for which Donny Defendant served 60 days – with a spotless record since – would nevertheless qualify Donny as a career offender if he got convicted of buying a pound of pot to divide up and sell to friends.  His Guideline sentencing range – 8 to 14 months – would shoot up to 210-262 months because of those 14-year old state burglaries.

The long-awaited change in the “career offender” guidelines would abandon the current “categorical approach” to what prior convictions were crimes of violence or drug offenses, substituting instead a list of federal and state crimes that apply. Burglary would no longer apply, felonies of any kind for which the defendant served less than 90 days would not apply, and defendants would have a chance to show that some crimes of violence should not count because their conduct was completely nonviolent.

There are many options contained in the USSC’s latest proposal.  For instance, the Commission asks people to comment on whether the cutoff for not counting minor felonies should be a sentence of 30, 60 or 90 days.  The proposal also includes changes to address conflicts among federal circuits on aspects of the Guidelines and changes to

As with most USSC proposals, the document is lengthy, 56 pages of explanation and granular strikeouts and additions, as well as modifications to the human trafficking Guidelines “to provide enhanced penalties that better reflect the harms of certain human smuggling offenses.”

The proposals are out for public comment until March 18, 2026,

US Sentencing Commission, Public Hearing (January 30, 2026)

US Sentencing Commission, Proposed Amendments to the Sentencing Guidelines (Preliminary) (January 30, 2026)

~ Thomas L. Root