A New November… Same Old Laws – Update for November 3, 2025

We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

NOVEMBER 1^ST IS HERE… SO WHAT?

Quick quiz: What new laws benefitting inmates became effective on November 1st?

If you said ‘none,’ you win. Any other guess means you lose. If you said the ‘65% law went into effect,’ go to the back of the class.

In a few weeks, I will have been writing this newsletter every week for 10 years. And for the past 10 years, I have been waging a lonely campaign to stamp out the never-ending myth that Congress just passed (or is about to pass) a law that says that some or all federal offenders will only have to serve 65% of their sentences.

So I again repeat myself. There is NO 65% bill, 65% law or 65% anything. There is NO proposal to cut federal sentences so that everyone will only serve 65% of his or her time. There is NO bill, law, NO directive from Trump, and NO anything else that will give inmates extra time off because things were so bad during COVID.

Nothing. Nada. Zilch. Bupkis.

The genesis of the pernicious 65% rumor is a longing for the bad old days of parole, where federal prisoners served between one-third and two-thirds of their sentences. People seem to think that if parole – abolished in the Sentencing Reform Act of 1985 – only came back, that means that prisoners would only serve two-thirds of their current Sentencing Guidelines sentences. But back then, there were no Guidelines sentences. Courts would just hand out statutory sentences of 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, or whatever. The U.S. Parole Commission would then apply its own guidelines to determine where – between one-third and two-thirds of that time – you’d actually be locked up.

So that meant on a sentence with a statutory range of zero to five years, the court would usually give you five years. You would serve between 20 months and 40 months, but you wouldn’t know how long you’d serve until you finally had your parole hearing (in front of a board of non-judges who were notoriously pro-prosecution).

The Sentencing Guidelines moved that analysis to the front of the sentencing process and applied standards that were much more detailed and subject to due process protections.  The parole hearing process was opaque and – while it could be challenged with a 28 USC § 2241 habeas petition – was nearly bulletproof. I have seen both systems, and for all of its shortcomings, the Sentencing Guidelines are better for prisoners by an order of magnitude.

The 65% rumor gained legs because the late Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-TX) introduced a bill in every Congress since 2003 (except for the 116th in 2019) to increase 18 USC § 3624(b) good time from 15% to 35% for nonviolent offenders. None of those bills ever collected a single co-sponsor, had a committee hearing, or came up for a vote.

Congresswoman Jackson Lee died in June 2024 of pancreatic cancer. Her last effort at a 65%-type law was the Federal Prison Bureau Nonviolent Offender Relief Act of 2023 (H.R. 54), which called for nonviolent offenders who were at least 45 years old and had zero criminal history points and no incident reports to serve only 50% of their sentences. This bill, like her prior efforts, failed.

There is NO legislation pending in Congress – a legislative body unable to even keep the government open – that provides any sentencing relief for federal prisoners. I predict that there is no stomach in this Republican-controlled Congress to entertain any such legislation. If there were, President Trump – who has been pushing the trope that America is overrun with crime – is unlikely to sign it.

However, the 2025 Guidelines amendments did become effective on November 1^st. The most significant is that for the first time in 37 years, departures have been eliminated (except for substantial assistance to the government, its own category with three decades of precedent on its frequent application). Another, a new drug amendment, expands the use of the mitigating role adjustment and caps the drug quantity table for such people at a maximum of 32. Another change encourages courts to impose supervised release only on people needing such structure and asks courts to terminate such supervised release early.

The supervised release change will benefit anyone subject to current or future supervised release. None of the other changes, however, is retroactive.

US Sentencing Commission, Amendments in Brief (October 31, 2025)

~ Thomas L. Root